Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 31.134341 33.434739 35.938403 38.887731 42.296500 46.149944 50.890850
2025-11-02 27.808928 30.883331 34.445893 38.956591 44.635715 51.730231 61.589591
2025-11-09 25.263356 28.569218 32.534874 37.770077 44.715694 53.978315 68.017761
2025-11-16 23.316773 26.707176 30.876239 36.552113 44.390122 55.404981 73.386165
2025-11-23 22.499480 26.127371 30.710267 37.167900 46.507875 60.491618 85.617796
2025-11-30 21.558997 25.294719 30.111385 37.082666 47.548045 64.074798 96.461659
2025-12-07 20.629220 24.400003 29.341099 36.648446 47.961397 66.664226 106.349984
2025-12-14 19.379459 23.008160 27.799228 34.957630 46.206093 65.229783 107.300739
2025-12-21 18.853334 22.550033 27.504704 35.061235 47.301528 69.013415 121.619628
2025-12-28 18.479429 22.271381 27.433140 35.477282 48.940459 74.129619 142.285049
2026-01-04 17.760848 21.484149 26.590831 34.634237 48.319005 74.639764 150.344737
2026-01-11 17.551252 21.388295 26.731998 35.334412 50.481602 81.408142 184.028807
2026-01-18 17.270198 21.261046 26.938060 36.364095 53.817179 92.910080 260.941367
2026-01-25 16.740678 20.763973 26.577956 36.460548 55.495475 101.570273 359.965528
2026-02-01 15.992424 19.906171 25.604336 35.400201 54.638685 103.105930 422.884684
2026-02-08 15.302471 19.100683 24.663558 34.313680 53.566975 103.714480 489.451886
2026-02-15 15.041496 18.907897 24.656616 34.863591 56.088781 116.685496 930.089432
2026-02-22 14.665838 18.525166 24.323406 34.787522 57.206650 125.877908 1990.003372
2026-03-01 14.253933 18.069367 23.846102 34.399716 57.533106 132.513844 6711.131612
2026-03-08 13.638932 17.286540 22.806964 32.885882 54.952209 126.257507 5785.841430
2026-03-15 13.384782 17.039674 22.624482 32.978816 56.320777 137.699572 NaN
2026-03-22 13.200790 16.890684 22.591532 33.351780 58.469932 154.942187 NaN
2026-03-29 12.815381 16.419493 22.004137 32.595654 57.555881 156.109760 NaN